Rival Watch

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Stranded
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Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 28 Apr 2023 12:22

SouthDownsRoyal If we win our last two games.

Two wins in a row for Reading

Just say it out loud.

Yup, exactly.


Stop focusing on the 2 win scenario. The only target is beat Wigan.

Then there is 1 game left. Winning on Saturday would essentially make prior form meaningless as it would likely put is into a one off winner takes all scenario.

If we win on Saturday, we go to Huddersfield just needing not to lose.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 28 Apr 2023 12:27

Stranded
SouthDownsRoyal If we win our last two games.

Two wins in a row for Reading

Just say it out loud.

Yup, exactly.


Stop focusing on the 2 win scenario. The only target is beat Wigan.

Then there is 1 game left. Winning on Saturday would essentially make prior form meaningless as it would likely put is into a one off winner takes all scenario.

If we win on Saturday, we go to Huddersfield just needing not to lose.

What's our record like in one off winner takes all matches?

Oh dear.

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tidus_mi2
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Re: Rival Watch

by tidus_mi2 » 28 Apr 2023 12:40

Snowflake Royal
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SouthDownsRoyal If we win our last two games.

Two wins in a row for Reading

Just say it out loud.

Yup, exactly.


Stop focusing on the 2 win scenario. The only target is beat Wigan.

Then there is 1 game left. Winning on Saturday would essentially make prior form meaningless as it would likely put is into a one off winner takes all scenario.

If we win on Saturday, we go to Huddersfield just needing not to lose.

What's our record like in one off winner takes all matches?

Oh dear.

Off the top of my head
We all know our play-off form.
Won in the Simod Cup final
Got the needed draw vs Brentford to earn promotion
Won the promotion chase with Southampton and West Ham but there wasn't final day drama
Smashed Derby but Fulham won in 07/08, so relegation
Lost to Birmingham in 08/09
Finished 7th on the final day 13/14

So yeah, not great.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Stranded » 28 Apr 2023 12:47

Snowflake Royal
Stranded
SouthDownsRoyal If we win our last two games.

Two wins in a row for Reading

Just say it out loud.

Yup, exactly.


Stop focusing on the 2 win scenario. The only target is beat Wigan.

Then there is 1 game left. Winning on Saturday would essentially make prior form meaningless as it would likely put is into a one off winner takes all scenario.

If we win on Saturday, we go to Huddersfield just needing not to lose.

What's our record like in one off winner takes all matches?

Oh dear.


Yep, it's not great and I expect us to drop but my point was simply no point going we need this we need that. The game after doesn't matter and at this point, the games before barely matter either. We play Wigan, we need to win. Then see where we are.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowflake Royal » 28 Apr 2023 12:49

tidus_mi2
Snowflake Royal
Stranded
Stop focusing on the 2 win scenario. The only target is beat Wigan.

Then there is 1 game left. Winning on Saturday would essentially make prior form meaningless as it would likely put is into a one off winner takes all scenario.

If we win on Saturday, we go to Huddersfield just needing not to lose.

What's our record like in one off winner takes all matches?

Oh dear.

Off the top of my head
We all know our play-off form.
Won in the Simod Cup final
Got the needed draw vs Brentford to earn promotion
Won the promotion chase with Southampton and West Ham but there wasn't final day drama
Smashed Derby but Fulham won in 07/08, so relegation
Lost to Birmingham in 08/09
Finished 7th on the final day 13/14

So yeah, not great.

You could very reasonably argue a lot of that isn’t relevant to the current team.

But then you fall back on our cup record, which in recent years is diabolical. And then you look at must win games like Hull, Bristol, Birmingham, Preston and Coventry and you go 'oh well, L1 it is'.


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Re: Rival Watch

by Pepe the Horseman » 28 Apr 2023 13:42

We beat Wigan, Huddersfield draw their two games in hand. Rotherham lose their last two, and after a slight delay in our game, both teams know the current 0-0 scoreline will be enough to stay up. Everyone stops playing. Players embrace. Warnock strips to the waist and hurls his shirt and tracksuit top into the away fans.

Then Reading score to send them down.

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Re: Rival Watch

by YorkshireRoyal99 » 28 Apr 2023 15:35

We don't categorically need to beat Wigan, we just need Huddersfield to not win any of their next 2 games if we don't.

Not that I'd be expecting to stay up if we didn't beat Wigan, but we don't actually need to do it providing Huddersfield don't win their next 2 games. We'd just then have to turn them over on the last day.

To be perfectly honest, I'd rather go into the last game with the attitude of "we must win" rather than, "we could get away with a draw, or we could lose and hope other results go our way etc" and the way we do that is by being below Huddersfield. Been there before where we don't know what we need to do and it cost us, thinking back to the Burnley 2-2 draw when we finished 7th.

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Re: Rival Watch

by tidus_mi2 » 28 Apr 2023 15:53

YorkshireRoyal99 We don't categorically need to beat Wigan, we just need Huddersfield to not win any of their next 2 games if we don't.

Not that I'd be expecting to stay up if we didn't beat Wigan, but we don't actually need to do it providing Huddersfield don't win their next 2 games. We'd just then have to turn them over on the last day.

To be perfectly honest, I'd rather go into the last game with the attitude of "we must win" rather than, "we could get away with a draw, or we could lose and hope other results go our way etc" and the way we do that is by being below Huddersfield. Been there before where we don't know what we need to do and it cost us, thinking back to the Burnley 2-2 draw when we finished 7th.

Was a cracking pitch invasion though.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Royal_jimmy » 28 Apr 2023 16:33

Snowball As for Huddersfield, they will do well to draw at Cardiff.

Cardiff really need a point

(see above)

Then they have Sheffield Utd which has draw written all over it

Presuming Reading beat Wigan

That would mean both Reading and Huddersfield would be on 49 points
going into the last game but Reading with the better GD


Depends how much we beat Wigan by. Ideally we want to beat Wigan by 2 goals so our GD is definitely better. A 1 goal win for us and 2 Huddersfield draws means a draw at Huddersfield could mean we go down on goals scored


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Re: Rival Watch

by tidus_mi2 » 28 Apr 2023 16:43

Royal_jimmy
Snowball As for Huddersfield, they will do well to draw at Cardiff.

Cardiff really need a point

(see above)

Then they have Sheffield Utd which has draw written all over it

Presuming Reading beat Wigan

That would mean both Reading and Huddersfield would be on 49 points
going into the last game but Reading with the better GD


Depends how much we beat Wigan by. Ideally we want to beat Wigan by 2 goals so our GD is definitely better. A 1 goal win for us and 2 Huddersfield draws means a draw at Huddersfield could mean we go down on goals scored

We beat Wigan 1-0, Huddersfield draw both games 2-2, we draw final day, we stay up on H2H record.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2023 17:25

Royal_jimmy
Snowball As for Huddersfield, they will do well to draw at Cardiff.

Cardiff really need a point

(see above)

Then they have Sheffield Utd which has draw written all over it

Presuming Reading beat Wigan

That would mean both Reading and Huddersfield would be on 49 points
going into the last game but Reading with the better GD


Depends how much we beat Wigan by. Ideally we want to beat Wigan by 2 goals so our GD is definitely better. A 1 goal win for us and 2 Huddersfield draws means a draw at Huddersfield could mean we go down on goals scored


ATM Huddersfield have scored three goals less than Reading

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Re: Rival Watch

by Snowball » 28 Apr 2023 17:47

So if Hudd draw we would like 0-0’s

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Re: Rival Watch

by Crowbar6753 » 28 Apr 2023 19:36

My brain's melted with all these permutations lol....let's just win tomorrow and see where it takes us!! Results have been extremally unkind in the last few weeks so let's hope this changes tomorrow.

I don't think we will win tomorrow, however, if it were to happen that would be huge and would give the whole squad such a lift that i really could see us beating Huddersfield in that final game which in essence would be a cup final.

I also have a sneeky feeling we may see a few of the walking wounded back in the squad tomorrow!! they won't start but their experience may come in useful late on.


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Re: Rival Watch

by The Royal Forester » 28 Apr 2023 21:30

tidus_mi2
Royal_jimmy
Snowball As for Huddersfield, they will do well to draw at Cardiff.

Cardiff really need a point

(see above)

Then they have Sheffield Utd which has draw written all over it

Presuming Reading beat Wigan

That would mean both Reading and Huddersfield would be on 49 points
going into the last game but Reading with the better GD


Depends how much we beat Wigan by. Ideally we want to beat Wigan by 2 goals so our GD is definitely better. A 1 goal win for us and 2 Huddersfield draws means a draw at Huddersfield could mean we go down on goals scored

We beat Wigan 1-0, Huddersfield draw both games 2-2, we draw final day, we stay up on H2H record.


I beg to differ. After goals scored it would be decided on, number of wins, goals in away matches and then the club that has been given the lowest number of penalty points will be deemed to finish highest. If still tied then it will be the team with the lowest number of sendings off before a deciding match will be played, but only when promotion/relegation is at stake. That is according to the EFL website.

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Re: Rival Watch

by AthleticoSpizz » 28 Apr 2023 21:37

Hot stuff going on at Blackpool, 2 - 3 Millwall (penalty just scored)

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Re: Rival Watch

by tidus_mi2 » 28 Apr 2023 21:56

The Royal Forester
tidus_mi2
Royal_jimmy
Depends how much we beat Wigan by. Ideally we want to beat Wigan by 2 goals so our GD is definitely better. A 1 goal win for us and 2 Huddersfield draws means a draw at Huddersfield could mean we go down on goals scored

We beat Wigan 1-0, Huddersfield draw both games 2-2, we draw final day, we stay up on H2H record.


I beg to differ. After goals scored it would be decided on, number of wins, goals in away matches and then the club that has been given the lowest number of penalty points will be deemed to finish highest. If still tied then it will be the team with the lowest number of sendings off before a deciding match will be played, but only when promotion/relegation is at stake. That is according to the EFL website.

That's cool but you're wrong.
9.2 If two or more Clubs have the same number of points, goal difference and goals scored the highest placed Club shall be determined by the respective League records against each other, taking into account in order of precedence, points gained, goal difference and goals scored.

https://www.efl.com/-more/governance/ef ... he-league/

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Re: Rival Watch

by tidus_mi2 » 28 Apr 2023 22:04

That's one spot taken, Wigan could be next tomorrow.

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Re: Rival Watch

by AthleticoSpizz » 28 Apr 2023 22:35

“could” …love your optimism

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Re: Rival Watch

by tidus_mi2 » 28 Apr 2023 22:48

AthleticoSpizz “could” …love your optimism

I've watched 21 home games this season, optimism is no longer in my vocabulary.

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Re: Rival Watch

by Royal_jimmy » 28 Apr 2023 22:49

That's one team we will finish above next season if we are in league one then

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