Goal Difference!

[Mr Angry]

Reading vs Swansea play off final

Can I just say that, for something posted in January, this is very spooky!

[Snowball]

The top six teams have the top six GDs. The bottom six teams have the six worst GDs

Teams-at-the-top-in-winning-more-games-than-they-lose-and-teams-at-the-bottom-in-losing-more-games-than-they-win-producing-wholly-predictable-goal-differences shocker...I am not one of your critics as your work on stats does produce some useful information now and again, but this certainly isn't one of those useful occasions. Once in a very blue moon, a team at the top will win, say, 25 games by a combined slim margin and lose, say, 12 games by a wider combined margin to give a negative goal difference, but that would be a rare blip to combat the status quo.

You forget where this came from. I was saying, when we looked to have no chance of the top-six that our GD
was that of a top-six club, and that if we ended up with 3rd/4th best GD we would finish in the top six.

I made a final-place prediction based NOT on points accrued, but on GD won, and I was proven right.


Of course it's a "no-brainer" that the better sides will have better GDs.

But the point was that I was arguing that WE WERE A BETTER SIDE THAN OUR POINTS TOTAL INDICATED
and that we would finish in the top six if we maintained our GD increase per game.

[Snowball]

Predictabilty, final position in relation to: (Championship 2010-11)

99.18% POINTS!

96.92% Total Wins
96.45% Goal Difference
93.73% Total Defeats

84.62% Home Wins
84.22% Home Defeats
82.22% Goals Scored
80.35% Defence
78.99% Away Defeats
76.86% Away Wins

28.33% Home Draws

[3 veesinarow]

OK, but it is still a statistical certainty that, as a consequence of steadily increasing GD, the only event possible for that to happen on a game-by-game basis is a win...which garners three points, thereby increasing a team's points tally and propelling them towards the top of the table rather than towards the bottom.

[ZacNaloen]

Tell that to those who questioned his logic at the beginning of the thread

[Snowball]

Tell that to those who questioned his logic at the beginning of the thread

What he said.

I don't deny that FINAL GD is closely correlated with finishing position.

The point is I PREDICTED Reading finishing in the POs, BASED ON GD after 20 games, EVEN THOUGH our point-count/position wasn't so good.


I also predicted we would score MORE goals than we did last season. WE DID.

I also predicted we would concede less goals than we did last season. WE DID.

I also said we would gain more points-per-game WITHOUT Gylfi, than with him. WE DID.

[ZacNaloen]

don't burn all your bridges now Snowball