by 3points »
07 Jun 2014 10:07
This is my area of expertise and the process is quite simple really
1. Lender (in this case almost definitely Vibrac unless someone has bought the debt from them) gets concerned and sends in specialist accounting firm (here Begbies Traynor) to undertake an assessment of the situation
2. Work out the options
a) can you fix the problem, eg through cutting costs, player sales, etc
b) if you can't fix it, can you sell it? this is the process that is currently happening. This is called a distressed asset sale and attracts a certain type of buyer who is prepared to buy the asset with limited due diligence, but it will be reflected in a lower sales price
c) if a) and b) don;t work then you end up putting it into administration
So, I believe we're at stage b) at the moment. The lender realises there is still more value right now than if it goes into administration. If that happens then we clearly lose 10 points and the players and other staff will leave in droves.
What does potentially bother me is that I've assumed the lender is Vibrac. If the money was borrowed against this season's parachute payment, then this money must have been repaid by now. We know from the accounts that there's a lot of debt owed to TSI and was more than 20m, so something in CS's statement doesn't quite stack up. Therefore, the lender in this situation could be TSI as it is owed the most money (well Boris Z anyway as he's been funding the club, as I pointed out many months ago).
The statement that there have been previous firm offers is in line with info I had. At Christmas, the deal was on with the Omanis, but fell away due to SJM's unrealistic expectations. CS has been the man leading the search so is well placed to understand where the club is in the process. I think there's a very high likelihood of CS being involved in a new deal (as someone else has mentioned, it is probably the reason he is no longer on the board as it creates a conflict of interest), especially if it is called Phoenix. A company that buys the asset of a previous one is known in the field as a phoenix, so it all adds up to CS being involved, and given he thinks the deal will happen quickly also points to people being involved who know and understand the situation.
All of this is an educated supposition, but does reflect what I see time and time again with companies with a lot of cashflow problems. I have no ITK on this position but the statement from CS does confirm a lot of bits of information that have been discussed on this thread throughout the season.
BTW - Begbies Traynor are really seen as "low end" operators in this field. None of the big boys (like the firm I work for) touch football clubs these days as there hassle we get from the fans is not worth the fees we get paid. This will be a prize job for Begbies and will be milking it for fees