Shane Long

[Snowball]

PS unless you are Terry Venables or possibly American, players don't play "deep" they play "deeply".

and Kebe plays Truly, Madly

[Hoop Blah]

I was "proving" the quality of Shane Long from post 1 of this thread when he had scored very few goals.

I was arguing that people were making errors of judgment because he was not getting ball-time

And I have been proven right. The stats in this case were ESSENTIAL, especially when various knee-jerkers
were saying stuff like "Long has been given numerous chances and blown them all"

You weren't proving anything of the sort, and your stats aren't essential to anything I'm afraid, especially with the way you've presented and interpreted them.

You had an opinion that Long was better than many people thought he was but your subsequent statistical barrage hasn't been able to prove that at all. Long has scored at a good rate when he's been on the pitch, no doubt about that, but he is still lacking in many parts of the game. That is largely because he hasn't had enough first team football to learn his trade over the last few seasons.

As it stands I still think, as I've said all along, that he's a reasonable player, who is a good instinctive finisher but his all round game just isn't good enough to consistently be starting games for a side who want to be challenging at the top end of the Championship.

In Doyle, Hunt, Lita and now Kitson we have four forwards who have more basic football ability than Long. Due to his various problems Lita has rightly been behind Long in the pecking order for some time now but his natural ability is still greater than Shane's, but he isn't getting anywhere near the best out of himself for the last two seasons.

[CMRoyal]

PS unless you are Terry Venables or possibly American, players don't play "deep" they play "deeply".

and Kebe plays Truly, Madly

You must be playing on the left today, snowball, you're in great form.

[Dirk Gently]

The point about ProZone is that it's not just a something that produces load of stats - there's a whole lot more to it than that as it's a multi-layered, multi-faceted tool that lets you view any aspect of a match from any perspective, including showing movement on and off the ball.

The problem with Snowball's relentless stat-attack is that it doesn't actually prove what he's trying to prove - it just pisses people off with it's sheer relentlessness.

I think Shane Long is a good player and I'm always happy when he starts - but not for any reason that can be provided by numbers. He makes things happen - for instance when he had the energy and motivation to chase a lost cause down the right wing at Plymouth and turn it into a really good chance on goal. No stats in the world will show the determination and commitment to the cause that Shane showed on that occasion. And as I said earlier you can prove anything with the right stats - Federici is the most lethal striker in English football right now - 100% of shots result in goals.

But even though I agree with Snowball about Shane Long, I find myself compelled to argue with all these stats because Snowball seems determined to take the multi-dimensional game of depth and subtlety that I love so much and convert it to a series of flat, two-dimensional numbers on a spreadsheet. It's fundamentally wrong. It doesn't work - DON'T DO IT!

[Royal Rother]

Give it up about Federici, please.

Everyone knows that a sample of 1 is not relevant in statistical analysis so it's daft to keep bringing that one up in an effort to undermine decent stats.

[Dirk Gently]

Give it up about Federici, please.

Everyone knows that a sample of 1 is not relevant in statistical analysis so it's daft to keep bringing that one up in an effort to undermine decent stats.

I must apologise most profusely that the statistic I used to demonstrate how unreliable statistics are when applied to football is unreliable.

[CMRoyal]

I think Shane Long is a good player and I'm always happy when he starts - but not for any reason that can be provided by numbers. He makes things happen - for instance when he had the energy and motivation to chase a lost cause down the right wing at Plymouth and turn it into a really good chance on goal.

Or that fantastic little nudge that got the penalty at home to Norwich.

[Norfolk Royal]

HNA posters would like to apologise en masse to Shane Long for over the last few years suggesting that he 'would never make a footballer.'

Posters now realise that what they meant to say was that he is the best Reading player we have who has an eye for goal and superb vision and touch.

[Dirk Gently]

HNA posters would like to apologise en masse to Shane Long for over the last few years suggesting that he 'would never make a footballer.'

Posters now realise that what they meant to say was that he is the best Reading player we have who has an eye for goal and superb vision and touch.

Not me - I'm on record as far back as 2006 in saying that I think Shane has the potential to be better than Doyler.

[ZacNaloen]

Give it up about Federici, please.

Everyone knows that a sample of 1 is not relevant in statistical analysis so it's daft to keep bringing that one up in an effort to undermine decent stats.

I must apologise most profusely that the statistic I used to demonstrate how unreliable statistics are when applied to football is unreliable.

... I'm embarassed for you Dirk. Sorry.

[Dr Hfuhruhurr]

Give it up about Federici, please.

Everyone knows that a sample of 1 is not relevant in statistical analysis so it's daft to keep bringing that one up in an effort to undermine decent stats.

I must apologise most profusely that the statistic I used to demonstrate how unreliable statistics are when applied to football is unreliable.

Im impressed that the best course of action proposed by RR about a contradictory statistic is to ban anyone from mentioning it.

[Royal Rother]

Great post.

[Millsy]

I think Shane Long is a good player and I'm always happy when he starts - but not for any reason that can be provided by numbers. He makes things happen - for instance when he had the energy and motivation to chase a lost cause down the right wing at Plymouth and turn it into a really good chance on goal.

(I know what yo're actually trying to say Dirk, so this isn't necessarily directed at you but just a general (almost tangential point) to something you raise above...)

If these little nudges and chases are of any use they WILL be reflected in the numbers. If they never are (i.e. they never end up in more goals or assists, or the team getting more points with that player playing) then they're neither here nor there however nice they may be to watch.

As it happens you seem to have, at least in this case, a good eye for these things and your prediction of 2006 doesn't look unfair. Streets ahead of the likes of me certainly. Good on you. Unfortunately the rest of us think we're world class scouts when we don't have a clue. The numbers help us look at things in a fresh light (as I did) and re-evaluate our 'world class scout' opinions. (This of course only applies to "current ability" and not "potential" which relies more heavily on observation.)

It still tickles me that there's so much brainless opposition to good old facts. This will upset a lot of self professed experts but a lot of the criticism for numbers and a lot of the preference for using a "head in the sand" approach is simply a mixture of arrogance and not understanding how to use numbers in the first place and a liking for good old banter and debate.

Why let facts get in the way of a perfectly good debate?

[Hoop Blah]

If these little nudges and chases are of any use they WILL be reflected in the numbers.

How?

I've not seen any stats that record the clever run to create space for a team mate, the nudge on a defender to force a mistake to conceed a penalty, the gamesmanship to chip away at a defender to make him commit a rash tackle, the dummy to help create a goal, the pressure a forward can extert on a defence by consistently holding the ball up well and so on and so on.

These little instances during a game aren't covered by stats but are a massive influence on the game and contribute a great deal to how you build up a team of individuals to complement each others abilities.

[Snowball]

If these little nudges and chases are of any use they WILL be reflected in the numbers.

How?

I've not seen any stats that record the clever run to create space for a team mate, the nudge on a defender to force a mistake to conceed a penalty, the gamesmanship to chip away at a defender to make him commit a rash tackle, the dummy to help create a goal, the pressure a forward can extert on a defence by consistently holding the ball up well and so on and so on.

These little instances during a game aren't covered by stats but are a massive influence on the game and contribute a great deal to how you build up a team of individuals to complement each others abilities.

I've not seen any stats that record the clever run to create space for a team mate,

Maybe not a published stat, but often pointed out on TV

the nudge on a defender to force a mistake to conceed a penalty,

isn't that "won a penalty"?

the gamesmanship to chip away at a defender to make him commit a rash tackle,

Niggles and 'feiry battles" (etc) often pointed out on TV

the dummy to help create a goal,

Again, maybe not a specific statistic, but often pointed out and easy (usually) to clock and log

the pressure a forward can exert on a defence by consistently holding the ball up well and so on and so on.

Most of these are hardly "invisible or subtle, are they?
We can all see when a CF is doing a good job with his back to goal.

These little instances during a game aren't covered by stats but are a massive influence on the game and
contribute a great deal to how you build up a team of individuals to complement each others abilities.

Most of these are just "attributes in a striker"

I have never said that the ONLY thing is the stat for shots, misses, goals, assists. We all know that a forward on for the first 65 may run the defence ragged, leave a few stud marks, and make the game easier for the forward who comes on as sub for the last 25 (for example)

BUT

As far as I'm concerned, a striker who scores 1 goal every two games does his job. He need do NOTHING else and he's a valuable player. Of course, score 1 in 2 and tackle back, and have ten assists a season, and write the programme and do magic tricks at half-time, but any striker who scores 23 a season in 46 games should be forgiven all other frailties or deficiencies.

[Hoop Blah]

Often mentioned on TV....is that a stat then?

Easily logged...is that a stat then?

2WW1WC said that these things "WILL be reflected in the numbers." My point is that many facets of the game won't be covered by the stats.

As for the nudge for the penalty, no Snowball that won't be "won penalty" as the nudge Long made caused the defender to handball it. I'd have thought the "won penalty" would be given, if it is at all, to whoever played the ball that the defender handballed it.

At last you seem to recognise that your stats do not cover enough of a players conribution to a game or a result and so don't accurately reflect a players ability. This is another breakthough!

I agree with what you say about a 1 in 2 forward being worth his place regardless of the rest of his play, however I don't agree 100% on that. It would depend on the make up of the rest of the side and the conritbution the team requires of that centre forward and that scoring record still wouldn't make him a better player than another forward with less goals but greater ability in theother facets of the game.

[Snowball]

Often mentioned on TV....is that a stat then?

If someone records it, yes. Andy Gray often does this sort of analysis, and whereas he might not say, X did Y 7 times, it's proper analysis as opposed to gut-feel

Easily logged...is that a stat then?

If someone records it, yes. Andy Gray often does this sort of analysis, and whereas he might not say, X did Y 7 times, it's proper analysis as opposed to gut-feel

2WW1WC said that these things "WILL be reflected in the numbers." My point is that many facets of the game won't be covered by the stats.

We can say, "Everybody's life is the same. They are born, they live, they die." Complex things are simply more difficult to quantify, that doesn't mean they can't be quantified. Given the cameras, a manager could analyse videotapes of his team and discover the average distance apart of his two CBs, the biggest/smallest gaps, the way they close space, whatever... and even supposedly random factors, could be taken into account. It's just the level of analysis.

I don't know what all the stats collected under the Prozone regime. All I know is what we get given, the simpler stuff. To me the simpler stuff is important. yeah, more subtlety would be nice, but...

As for the nudge for the penalty, no Snowball that won't be "won penalty" as the nudge Long made caused the defender to handball it.

Disagree. Would the penalty have happened if Long had NOt nudged the defender?

NO.

Therefore Long's action precipitated the handball and we got the penalty.

Kits, had he been with us then, would have been deep in midfield, Lita would have been on the floor ten yards away

I'd have thought the "won penalty" would be given, if it is at all, to whoever played the ball that the defender handballed it.

And you'd be wrong.

At last you seem to recognise that your stats do not cover enough of a players conribution to a game or a result and so don't accurately reflect a players ability. This is another breakthough!

Not even slightly. I have always said that. We use the stats we have.

Fer Chrissakes, a changing-room argument we never hear about could affect a game.

we deal with what we have

[Ian Royal]

I've recorded shed loads of things on HNA and apparently I'm just making them up. So now they're stats are they?

Make your mind up on what a stat actually is will you.

First people are just spouting nonsense, then anything anyone says which is based on something they've seen at a game is a stat, then people are talking nonsense because they are only talking about what they saw. Now anything shown on television or mentioned by anyone is a stat. It's getting ridiculous.

[BR2]

This has been one hell of a Long topic and as with any there is no definitive conclusion-good,that's what all these boards are all about.
Despite Shane scoring two very important goals,one dead easy but the other quite difficult,against a relegated (almost) side ,in my view he is about where he was when he first played and scored that header v Derby(?)
He is a good header and has a terrific spring but that's not enough for a top Championship/lower Premiership club.
His link up play hasn't improved nor has his first touch and ball retention is so important the higher you get up the football scale.
His pace and heading ability can lead him to have a decent career at Championship level and the same goes for N Hunt and S Hunt but The Premiership is different and to succedd at that level we need better players than these three.

It will be interesting to see how much Church and Mooney have developed after their loan spells and with Lita going and doubts over Kitson returning there could be some shaking up in the striker department especially if we do re-sign Cox from Swindon or pick up Vokes from Wolves.
Unlike Snowball I am with those that don't think of football in terms of stats but what we see week-in,week-out.
BTW "assists" stats have become a big thing in recent years and don't tell us anywhere near the full story behind a goal,e.g a midfielder plays a 50 yard defence-splitting ball to a winger who taps the ball across goal into the path of the oncoming striker who scores.
The most significant part in that goal was probably the midfielder's pass but that doesn't get noted whereas the winger's simple pass becomes an "assist".

Back to Shane if he plays tomorrow (I would go with Kitson and Doyle after Doyle's recent rest but suspect that the manager won't) let's hope he comes up trumps again and for his enthusiasm and effort I hope that he has a lengthy and successful career in the game.

[brendywendy]

Despite Shane scoring two very important goals,one dead easy but the other quite difficult,against a relegated (almost) side ,in my view he is about where he was when he first played and scored that header v Derby(?)
He is a good header and has a terrific spring but that's not enough for a top Championship/lower Premiership club.
His link up play hasn't improved nor has his first touch and ball retention is so important the higher you get up the football scale.
His pace and heading ability can lead him to have a decent career at Championship level and the same goes for N Hunt and S Hunt but The Premiership is different and to succedd at that level we need better players than these three.

totally ignores clear improvements in touch, movement,link up play , finishing, and ball retention seen this season, and especially during his latest run in the team.
and to say hes not moved on at all since he scored his first vs derby a few years back is mad.


still to be proven at any other level, but he looks a decent prospect, and the potential for further improvements