Shane Long

[weybridgewanderer]

so the following stat was based only on his scoring ratio when he started games?

I said, it's a fact he scored fractionally better than a goal every 180 minutes in 2008-9
and IF HE PLAYED every game in 2009-20 he "could" (not WOULD) get 23 goals.

[prostak]

Fook me, snowball's a teacher? I'd presumed he was 15...

Regardless of reams of stats which I really can't be arsed to analyse, I'm basing my judgement of Long on what I've seen him do over the past few years. Yes, he'll run all day, but as has been stated that first touch and simple lack of intelligence and awareness prevents me from ever accepting him. I'm just pleased I'm moving away so won't have the opportunity to watch him soil the number 9 shirt.

[Snowball]

so the following stat was based only on his scoring ratio when he started games?

I said, it's a fact he scored fractionally better than a goal every 180 minutes in 2008-9
and IF HE PLAYED every game in 2009-20 he "could" (not WOULD) get 23 goals.

Jesus, I worry about the level of logic on this list.

If you are discussing a player's likely OVERALL contribution, goals-wise, then you look at ALL his appearances (altho' you might choose to ignore appearances that are less, than say, five minutes0


So, in order to ESTIMATE how Shane might do this year you total ALL his minutes, divide by 90 (= "games") and assess his "goals per game"

BUT


IF YOU WISH TO PREDICT HIS SCORING AS AN IMPACT SUB then you OBVIOUSLY only look at the minutes played AS an impact sub


This is hardly complicated.

[weybridgewanderer]

so you assess his ability to score goals over ninety minutes counting all his games, when he has started and came on as a sub?

You then ridicule my assertion, using your same stat, that he would score once every 18 games if he only played the last time minutes, saying my use of your stat is unsound

all this shows is you, yet again, trying desperately to allow stats to back up your rather flimsy arguement

you've really never studied statistics have you?

to be honest, all things being equal, this is the same sort of rubbish that you used to try and persaud us all we were not shit in the second half of last season

[Ian Royal]

so you assess his ability to score goals over night minutes counting all his games, when hes started and came on as a sub?

You the ridicaule my assertion, using your same stat, that he would score once every 18 games if he only played the last time minutes, saying my use of your stat is unsound

all this shows is you, yet again, trying desperately to allow stats to back up your rather flimsy arguement

you've really never studied statistics have you?

to be honest, all things being equal, this is the same sort of rubbish that you used to try and persaud us all we were not shit in the second half of last season

Have you been drinking?

[weybridgewanderer]

Have you been drinking?

i've fixed it a bit, english isn't my first language, sorry

[Snowball]

s

you've really never studied statistics have you?

to be honest, all things being equal, this is the same sort of rubbish that you used to try and persaud us all we were not shit in the second half of last season

I TAUGHT statistics at Liverpool University

[Ian Royal]

Have you been drinking?

i've fixed it a bit, english isn't my first language, sorry

If it isn't your first language that's pretty impressive. I can barely manage a few sentences in any other languages.

[Arch]

s

you've really never studied statistics have you?

to be honest, all things being equal, this is the same sort of rubbish that you used to try and persaud us all we were not shit in the second half of last season

I TAUGHT statistics at Liverpool University

Now that's scary.

[weybridgewanderer]

s

you've really never studied statistics have you?

to be honest, all things being equal, this is the same sort of rubbish that you used to try and persaud us all we were not shit in the second half of last season

I TAUGHT statistics at Liverpool University

yes, but did you ever study it?

[Snowball]

so you assess his ability to score goals over ninety minutes counting all his games, when he has started and came on as a sub?
You then ridicule my assertion, using your same stat, that he would score once every 18 games if he only played the last time minutes, saying my use of your stat is unsound
all this shows is you, yet again, trying desperately to allow stats to back up your rather flimsy arguement
you've really never studied statistics have you?
to be honest, all things being equal, this is the same sort of rubbish that you used to try and persaud us all we were not shit in the second half of last season

Dear Sweet Jesus, Save Me.

1. When assessing an impact sub's performance ONLY his performance as an impact sub is relevant.

2. When assessing a player's ability WHEN HE STARTS, only his starts should be considered (with allowance made for whether he plays 45/60/75/90 minutes)

3. When assessing a player's OVERALL scoring abilities, we look at ALL his minutes played (although we might drop "token" few-minute appearances.


DOYLE started 39 games and was sub in two games. He played most of those games for the whole 90 minutes.

I don't have the exact figure to hand but he played slightly more than twice Shane Long's minutes for exactly twice the goals.

IF we had no other information on "Doyle" we would (very roughly) say "He scores 1 goal every 180-190 minutes" (or whatever the actual figure is)

So (for simplicity) imagine he scored 1 goal every 180 minutes, and (for simplicity) goals in the last 10 minutes
were approximately as difficult to score... Then "Doyle" playing 46 times ten minutes = 460 minutes, would get 2 or 3 goals per season

and if he played 46 times 15 minutes he'd score about 4 goals

and if he played 46 times 20 minutes he'd score about 5/6 goals

It isn't rocket science. That was always the point. Long wasn't getting either minutes on the pitch
or many consecutive starts, and THAT was the main reason he wasn't scoring more than three a season


In the first season we upped his minutes on the pitch (still only the equivalent of 18 games compared to Doyle's 39.3) he got NINE goals

[weybridgewanderer]

so the fact that shane long had fresh legs when he came on and the defenders were tired is just ignored?

[weybridgewanderer]

[Dear Sweet Jesus, Save Me.

1. When assessing an impact sub's performance ONLY his performance as an impact sub is relevant.

2. When assessing a player's ability WHEN HE STARTS, only his starts should be considered (with allowance made for whether he plays 45/60/75/90 minutes)

3. When assessing a player's OVERALL scoring abilities, we look at ALL his minutes played (although we might drop "token" few-minute appearances.

i go out every friday, drink 8 pints and get drink

does that mean i'll be drink every 8th pint i drink?

[Snowball]

so the fact that shane long had fresh legs when he came on and the defenders were tired is just ignored?

NO. Try looking at OTHER subs who came on with fresh legs and see how THEY performed.

Noel Hunt, coming on as a sub, I think has never scored a league goal for us.

Did Doyle score when he came on as a sub last season? NO.


Long played 90 minutes when scoring twice versus Norwich, so not fresh legs that game, then
Long played 90 minutes when scoring against Derby, so not fresh legs that game, then
Long played 90 minutes when scoring twice against Charlton, so not fresh legs that game, then
Long played 65 minutes when scoring against Burnley, so not fresh legs that game, then
Long played 90 minutes when scoring against Southampton, so not fresh legs that game, then

That's SEVEN goals from his nine NOT on "fresh legs"


He got a late goal (and won a penalty) coming on as a sub versus Norwich at home

He got a late (winning goal) at Wednesday coming on as a sub

so 7/9 = 77% of his goals were NOT because of fresh legs.



Try again?

[prostak]

Again - using statistics alone to form an argument as to how good a footballer is just doesn't work. It's a bit like saying Westlife are the greatest band of the past decade cos they've had the most number 1's.

Snowball - Have you any statistics to show how many times Long's just lumped the ball vaguely toward the goal cos he can't think what else to do with it?

[cmonurz]

Again - using statistics alone to form an argument as to how good a footballer is just doesn't work. It's a bit like saying Westlife are the greatest band of the past decade cos they've had the most number 1's.

Snowball - Have you any statistics to show how many times Long's just lumped the ball vaguely toward the goal cos he can't think what else to do with it?

I think that's about the most sane post on this thread, my own included, and illustrates the futility of Snowball's arguments perfectly.

[Ian Royal]

Again - using statistics alone to form an argument as to how good a footballer is just doesn't work. It's a bit like saying Westlife are the greatest band of the past decade cos they've had the most number 1's.

Snowball - Have you any statistics to show how many times Long's just lumped the ball vaguely toward the goal cos he can't think what else to do with it?

I think that's about the most sane post on this thread, my own included, and illustrates the futility of Snowball's arguments perfectly.

Best use of Westlife EVER

[Snowball]

Again - using statistics alone to form an argument as to how good a footballer is just doesn't work. It's a bit like saying Westlife are the greatest band of the past decade cos they've had the most number 1's.

Snowball - Have you any statistics to show how many times Long's just lumped the ball vaguely toward the goal cos he can't think what else to do with it?

LOOK >Someone tries to show that Long's 2008-9 goals were "because he had fresh legs and scored late"

and I conclusively proved that NOT to be the case. That's all.


I wasn't talking about his first touch. or his new house in Newbury,
or the price of cheese, or how he lumps in crosses. I was dealing
with an incorrect assertion about how and why he got his goals last
season. End of.

[Royalee]

99.9% of Snowball's posts bore the shit out of me, FACT.

[Northern Git]

s

you've really never studied statistics have you?

to be honest, all things being equal, this is the same sort of rubbish that you used to try and persaud us all we were not shit in the second half of last season

I TAUGHT statistics at Liverpool University

And that perfectly sums up what’s wrong with Universities.