Goldman Sachs "World Cup and Economics"

[PremAddict]

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/glob ... 10-doc.pdf

About England:

Football and the Election

Returning to the football, what can we say of England’s prospects? The qualifying group is gentler than most. That’s not to say England can’t lose—in fact, the World Cup wouldn’t be the World Cup without a significant number of English scares/defensive errors/last-minute goals in the early stages. But while the US, Algeria and Slovenia certainly offer dangers, England should progress from the group.

If they do so as winners, they’d then be up against whoever comes second in Group D (Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana). Australia? Tasty. England’s done them in the last two Rugby World Cups, in two of the past three Ashes series and would fancy themselves against Australia in a football contest too (Aussies, that bit’s for you).

Sadly, it’s more likely to be Ghana or Serbia (Aussies, that too is for you). Thereafter, with the oxygen getting a little bit thinner, it might be Nigeria or France in the quarters, and if you manage to get past them.....Brazil-in the-semis-it’s-all-over-never-mind-let’s-go-to-the-pubsee-you-in four-years.

Would that leave England fans satisfied? Filled as they are more with hope than expectation, yes it probably would. And look at the positives—at least the general election campaign will be over before the World Cup and we don’t have to have politicians telling us how much they care about the team.