Play-off Promotion Stats

[EPR]

Any stats out there regarding promotion success over finishing 3rd/4th (second leg home advantage) Vs 5th / 6th?

Logic would dictate that over time, the statistics should mirror league finishing position (no idea how you would begin to calculate how that should be distributed though). However I just get the feeling that provided you finish in the play-off's it's a bit of a lottery and would be interested to know if the statistics would suggest that rather than a distribution that can be correlated with league finishing position.

[RoyalChicagoFC]

I haven't seen a breakdown, but here are the raw data

CCC
League One
League Two

[EPR]

I haven't seen a breakdown, but here are the raw data

Thanks RC, if the stats aren't currently out there i'll have a go at it.

[T.R.O.L.I.]

However I just get the feeling that provided you finish in the play-off's it's a bit of a lottery

Agreed, although form in the run up to the playoffs > final league position.

[Ian Royal]

Since the current format started as far as I can make out the Championship sequence is:

4th, 4th, 6th, 5th, 4th, 4th*, 5th, 6th, 4th, 5th, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, 5th, 6th, 6th, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, 6th.

3rd: 5 times
4th: 5 times
5th: 6 times
6th: 5 times.


We've finished in play offs four times. 3rd* twice - reaching the final and losing having been ahead, and 4th twice - losing in the semi-finals.

*The season the prem was reduced so have changed it to match the others- ie 2nd = 3rd, 3rd = 4th etc.

Working out 5/6 game form going into the play offs for all 84 teams is not something I'm prepared to do.

If you add in League One - not doing Two as the finishing positions are different with more going up so pushing play off places lower down - you get this:

3rd: 12 times
4th: 9 times
5th: 10 times
6th: 11 times

[PEARCEY]

Warrants a mini "ooof"

[EPR]

Thanks, IR!

[Ian Royal]

I get the feeling the really good indicator would be form going into them.... but as said before, that's a massive job to do, even just for showing the form of the winners it's quite a lot of work, and that would only tell you if they had good form, not the best form.

[roadrunner]

However I just get the feeling that provided you finish in the play-off's it's a bit of a lottery

Agreed, although form in the run up to the playoffs > final league position.

This. We've been there before where we enter them on a downer, and our record isn't great.

This form plus the fact that McDermott loves a cup tie makes me feel a lot more confident than previous play-offs. I can't wait for these.

[papereyes]

My memory is that the only one that shows anything like the positions is 4th tier (i.e. finishing 4th > 5th > 6th > 7th).

But, yeah, is a teensy bit of a lottery. Best go in with some form of mo' (but even then 1994-5 , I thought we were the form team ... )

[PieEater]

Swansea's play off record looks as bad if not worse than ours.

[Corky341]

Nothing to do with stats, but I'm confused. Why will the dates of the play-offs be reversed if Forest finish 5th?

[Svlad Cjelli]

Nothing to do with stats, but I'm confused. Why will the dates of the play-offs be reversed if Forest finish 5th?

Nottingham Police say they can't police the other dates due to a conflict with existing events.

[Corky341]

Thanks Svlad. I had half an idea it was Notts Plod. Cheers.